Click the headers below to open and close sections.

EVENTS / APPEARANCES

• Conference Call Slides: Race Between U.S. Upswing and European Downswing - 5-10-2013
  Conference Call with David Malpass
  Friday, May 10 at 10am EDT
  Can U.S. accelerate? Animal spirits versus drag from health care and the Fed
  How far can the upswing in credit take us?
  Is it too late to stop the euro’s collapse?
  Gold, commodities and inflation outlook; is it a super-cycle toward stronger dollar?
  Market implications – can emerging markets na

• Conference Call Slide: Growth and Budget Deficits - 4-11-2013
  Topics of discussion:
  Moderate U.S. growth versus recessions in Europe and Japan
  How fast will U.S. fiscal deficit shrink? Is surplus possible?
  Is U.S. fiscal consolidation a drag on GDP?
  Will U.S. reform the tax code? Or just talk about it?
  Any bottom to Europe’s fiscal deterioration?
  Will Germany allow bigger deficit targets? Can countries fund them?

• Conference Call Slides: U.S. Upturn vs. Europe Crisis; Which Is Stronger? - 3-20-2013
  

• Conference Call Slides: Currencies and Earnings - 2-14-2013
  Weak Q4 data from Europe and Japan
  Currency outlook: why the euro will weaken
  Why currencies are a bigger factor in investment returns
  QE’s impact on currencies globally
  Japan’s yen play – will it work?
  Global upside and downside possibilities
  

• Conference Call Slides: Where Will Global QE Lead? - 1-10-2013
  Topic: Where Will Global QE Lead?
  Conference Call with David Malpass
  Thursday, January 10 at 10am EST
  Topics of discussion:
  QE data for ECB, BOJ, BOE and Fed
  How and when might Fed wind down its QE? Fed minutes a red herring
  Monetary stimulus being limited by credit and regulatory policies. Are they loosening?
  Europe beyond Laffer curve: tax receipts we

• Conference Call Slides: Global Policy Issues from 2013 - 12-20-2012
  Conference Call with David Malpass
  Thursday, December 20 at 10:30am EST
  Topics of discussion:
  Evaluating U.S. year-end fiscal deals – the harder the can-kick the better;
  Will Japan’s political and monetary changes matter?
  Weak Greek deal; banking union distant; Italian governance; French recession;
  How long can Europe hold together as ECB covers worsening ca

• Conference Call Slide: Economic Outlook for U.S., Eurozone and China (clients)
  

• Conference Call Slides: September Crunch Points - 8-23-2012 (clients)
  Topic: September Crunch Points
  Topics of discussion:
  Fed can’t stimulate; no money multiplier
  Year-end U.S. fiscal crisis getting worse; election dynamics
  Germany and periphery too far apart, leaving few reforms and deeper recessions
  Growing Middle East risk; positive surprises possible from China
  Market Complacency
  

• Conference Call Slides: Europe Crisis and Fiscal Cliff Timelines Converging (clients)
  

• Conference Call: How Deep a Global Slowdown? (Client)
  

• Conference Call: Assessing the Tail Risk - 6-5-2012 (Client)
  U.S. growth outlook
  Comparing tail risks in 2013, is V-shaped acceleration more likely than recession?
  Ranking the growth barriers Europe, fiscal cliff, small business drag, Feds distortions, Chinas slowdown
  Housing will recover, but how much can it add?
  

• Conference Call: What If Europe Gets Even Worse? - 4-24-2012 (Client)
  Conference call with David Malpass April 24, 11am EDT
  Why did Europe’s outlook turn down so fast?
  Key variables for further deterioration:
  election problems; ECB and Bundesbank strains re collateral and target 2
  Impact on financial markets and rest of world
  Why U.S. can’t decouple
  Recovery options? Structural reforms?
  

• Conference Call Slides: Credit Boom - How Big, How Long - 3-14-2012 (Client)
  Topics of discussion:
  How Europe, the U.S. and China are loosening credit
  The difference between credit policy and monetary policy
  Fed’s QE is harmful, whether sterilized or not; credit policy relaxation is huge
  How artificial is the economic growth from leverage and government debt?
  Market impact – looking beyond 2012
  

DAVID MALPASS - RECENT PIECES

• Fed Policy Recap: QE3 Makes Fed Bigger But Hurts Growth Outlook - 9-17-2012
  

• Difficult Tax Scenarios Add to U.S. Recession Risk 9-13-2012
  

• Unemployment Falls Back to 8.1%, but Recession Odds Climbing
  

• Europe on Wrong Path: Moving Beyond Salvage - 9-5-2012
  

• September Crunch Points: Slow Growth, More Debt, Market Top - 9-4-2012
  

• Fed Minutes; CBO Recession - 8-22-2012
  

• Fed Runs Out of Treasury Bills - 8-19-2012
  

• Complacency Heading Into September - 8/16/2012
  

• LIBOR and Other Benchmarks - 8-9-2012
  

• Unemployment at 8.3%, Helping Fed Justify QE3 - 8-3-2012
  

• Massive Monetary Distortions - 8-1-2012
  

• Focus on ECB and ESM More Than Fed - 7-26-2012
  

• Europe Setting Up August Emergency - 7-23-2012
  

• Slow Growth Continues - 7-19-2012
  

• China’s Q2 Growth Picks Up; Counter-Cyclical Credit Policy At Work - 7-13-2012
  

• Weak Jobs Data Undershoots Low Expectations - 7-6-2012
  

• Mixed Action From Central Banks - 7-5-2012
  

• U.S. Weakness Complicates Major Debt Problems in Europe - 7-3-2011
  

• Not Expecting Much Central Bank Stimulus - 6-15-2012
  

• Europe’s Clock Ticking - 6-14-2011
  

• Germany Playing Carrots and Sticks Creating Another Buy-Equity Sell-Bonds Moment - 6-8-2011
  

• China Cuts Interest Rates; Consumption Surge Continuing - 6-7-2011
  

• Sell-Off Depends on Euro Breakup - 6-1-2012
  

• For Now, Weak Economy, Weak Jobs, Reduced U.S. Dynamism - 5-31-2012
  

• Spain Demands Help; Shades of Greece - 5-29-2012
  

• Moderate Housing Recovery - 5-25-2012
  

• Squeezing Greece's Cash Flow - 5-21-2012
  

• Europe Still Deteriorating 5-15-2012
  

• Europe Problems Getting Aired - 5-8-2012
  

• Labor Force and Wages Stagnating - 5-4-2012
  

• Poor Quality of Income and Growth Hurting Business Investment - 4-30-2010
  

• Q1 GDP Held Down by Weak Investment and Defense - 4-27-2012
  

• Europe Developments Mostly Negative - 4-19-2012
  

• Euro At Risk - 4-16-2012
  

• Cautious Near-Term Outlook; Lowering First Half U.S. Growth - 4-12-2012
  

• Europe on Wrong Path - 4-9-2012
  

• Employment Growth Not Growing Enough 4-4-2012
  

• Europe Still At Risk - 3-30-2012
  

• U.S. Credit Relaxation; Bank Stress Tests Up Next - 3-13-2012
  

• U.S. Election Update - 3-2-2012
  

• Weak Personal Income to Hold Down Q1 Growth - 3-1-2012
  

• Bernanke Lifts the Value of the Dollar; Hammering Gold - 2-24-2012
  

• Near-Term Cautious - 2-15-2012
  

• Equity Market Meltup In the Cards? - 2-1-2012
  

• Europe's Forbearance process Broadens - 1-31-2012
  

• GDP Weaker Than Expected: 2012 Outlook OK - 1-27-2012
  

• IMF Lowers Global Growth Forecast - 1-24-2012
  

• Raising Our 2012 Growth Forecast; Market Implications of Faster Growth - 1-19-2012
  

• European Developments Increasingly Favorable - 1-19-2012
  

• Improvement in Outlook Lifting Asset Prices - 1-17-2012
  

• Europe's Tail Risk Declining - 1-13-2012
  

• Job Growth Probably Not Enough to Lower Unemployment - 1-5-2012
  

• Europe Sinking Toward the IMF - 1-4-2012
  

• Europe: Disappointments Coming - 12-30-2012
  

• Gold Selloff is OK; Europe Still Key - 12-14-2011
  

• Year-end Legislation Kicks the Can - 12-12-2011
  

• After ECB Rate Cut and Weak Summit, Europe's Banks Under Scrutiny - 12-8-2011
  

• Strong Profits So Far, but Profit Growth Depends on Europe - 11-22-2011
  

• Low Expectations for Super Committee and Europe are Priced In - 11-20-2011
  

• U.S. Bank Loans Growing, But Europe's Deterioration Likely to Dominate - 11-16-2011
  

• Households Gained a Million Jobs In 3 Months - 11-4-2011
  

• Europe Update: Key Variables - 11-3-2011
  

• Outlook: U.S. and Europe to Slow - 10-31-2011
  

• Europe Agrees to Do More - 10-27-2011
  

• October Cautions: Jobs and Wages Up Too Little - 10-7-2011
  

• ECB Does the Minimum - 10-6-2011
  

• Plan Forming in Europe - 10-4-2011
  

• Good News on Europe Now, But Then What? - 9-27-2011
  

• Drawn-Out Operation Twist - 9-21-2011
  

• Policy Freeze Points to Recession - 9-15-2011
  

• Europe Developments Overshadow Obama and Bernanke Speech - 9-9-2011
  

• U.S. Fiscal Outlook Getting Worse 9-8-2011
  

• September Cautions - 9-7-2011
  

• Private Sector Jobs Grow, Gov't Shrinks - 9-2-2011
  

• CBO Deficit Update - 8-24-2011
  

• Trichet at Jackson Hole; Huge Profit Available for Europe 8-24-2011
  

• Bernanke at Jackson Hole - 8-24-2011
  

• Gold and Bonds Priced for Collapse - 8-23-2011
  

• Europe's Bank Funding and Spreads Not as Big a Problem as Slow Growth - 8-18-2011
  

• Near Term Cautions - 8-18-2011
  

• U.S. Production Growth is Not Enough - 8-16-2011
  

• Rebuilding Confidence - 8-11-2011
  

• Jobs Show Extended Soft Patch, Not Double Dip - 8-5-2011
  

• Europe Struggles; Geuribor Spread Widens - 8-4-2011
  

• Bond Yields Tanking More Than Economy - 8-4-2011
  

• Second Quarter GDP Weak; Lowering Q3 - 7-29-2011
  

• Bottom in Bank Stocks as Regulatory Capital Requirements Are Met? - 7-21-2011
  

• Look Past Wall of Worry to Stronger Second Half Growth - 7-20-2011
  

• Inflation Should Fall, Then Rise Over Longer Term - 7-15-2011
  

• Initial Claims Should Fall - 7-27-2011
  

• Yields Rising in Europe's Debt Crisis - 7-12-2011
  

• Spike in Recent Unemployment - 7-8-2011
  

• Second Half Lift Off with U.S. Alone on Weak Monetary Policy - 7-7-2011
  

• Next Up, Debt Limit Crisis - 6-30-2011
  

• Inflation Trade Gone Sour - 6-29-2011
  

• Key Variable: U.S. Second Half Growth - 6-28-2011
  

• Thoughts on the Data and Market Sell-off 6-16-2011
  

• Stronger Second Half; Good Time to Sell Bonds - 6-10-2011
  

• Job Growth Drops in May - 6-3-2011
  

• Substantial 2011 Soft Patch; Lowering 2nd Qtr GDP, but not 2nd Half - 6-1-2011
  

• Weak ADP and ISM Data: Employment Preview - 6-1-2011
  

• Near-Term Outlook - 5-31-2011
  

• Fed to Borrow from Fannie / Freddie Reducing Credit Market Disruption - 5-24-2011
  

• QE2 Ends Like Y2K - 5-12-2011
  

• Fed Not Printing; Global Implications - 5-10-2011
  

• Stronger Payrolls, but Other Weakness Points to Moderate Growth - 5-6-2011
  

• Bond Squeeze Nearly Over - 5-3-2011
  

• Bernanke Says Strong Dollar, But... 4-27-2011
  

• Treasury Bond Squeeze - 4-25-2011
  

• Fed Exit - Fed Funds Rate, not QE2, the Key Variable - 4-25-2011
  

• Whipsaw in Bond Yields - 4-18-2011
  

• Tall Wall of Worry; Good Second Half Outlook - 4-15-2011
  

• Europe Update: Portugal Slides Toward Debt Restructuring; Spain Doesn't - 4-8-2011
  

• Budget Chaos, but Little Lasting Impact - 4-8-2011
  

• Record Gold; Bond Yields to Rise 4-5-2011
  

• Fed Exit Strategies - 4-1-0211
  

• Another "Soft Patch'? 3-29-2011
  

• CBO Releases Re-Estimate of the President's Budget 3-18-2011
  

• U.S. Assets $70.7 Trillion, Debt $36.3 Trillion - 3-11-2011
  

• U.S. Exports Hit Record $168 Billion in January - 3-10-2011
  

• Brief Global Outlook - 3-9-2011
  

• Payrolls Improving; Unemployment at 8.9%; Millions to Hit 99 Week UI Limit - 3-4-2011
  

• QE2 Not Justified: What If Bernanke Stops Buying? - 3-4-2011
  

• Price Uptrends Intact; U.S. Expansion Builds - 3-3-2011
  

• Only Small Budget Cuts Coming; Washington's Boom Goes On - 2-25-2011
  

• North Africa Turmoil: Europe, Not Oil, the Weak Link - 2-24-2011
  

• Growth Now, But Threats Rising - 2-23-2011
  

• Egypt Risks Include Hoarding - 2-10-2011
  

• Job Growth or Conspiracy? - 2-8-2011
  

• Weak Payrolls, but Recovery in Other Indicators - 2-4-2011
  

• Gold Down, Equities Up - 1-27-2011
  

• Reaching the Limits of Washington's Debt Expansion - 1-26-2011
  

• U.S. Debt and Asset Picture - 1-19-2011
  

• Growth Metrics: Strong Consumption, but Weak Production and Labor - 1-14-2011
  

• China Outlook: Growth and Monetary Tightening to Continue - 1-13-2011
  

• Strong Economic Data; Markets Doubt Monetary and Fiscal Restraint - 1-5-2011
  

• Consumption Growing Faster than Income; Farm Income Surging - 12-23-2010
  

• 2011 Global Outlook and Forecasts - 12-22-2010
  

• Impact of Washington's Tax and Spend Finale - 12-17-2010
  

• Credit Drain on Small Businesses and Households Lessening Somewhat - 12-10-2010
  

• Q3 Household Net Worth Grew with Equities; But Home Values Fell - 12-9-2010
  

• Weak Job Gains at Establishments and Job Losses at Households - 12-3-2010
  

• Tax Crisis Matters More Than European Debt - 11-30-2010
  

• Ireland's Not Greece - 11-23-2010
  

• Volatile December from QE and Taxes - 11-22-2010
  

• Rolling European Debt Problems - 11-10-2010
  

• Tax Cut Plus QE2 - Both in Doubt - 11/10/2010
  

• Winding Down the Fed's QE - 11-8-2010
  

• Good Job Gains at Establishments, but Losses for Household 11-5-2010
  

• Gradual Recovery Should Begin to Show Up in Jobs - 11-4-2010
  

• Full Punch Bowl - 11-4-2010
  

• Election Impact on the Dollar - 11-2-2010
  

• Impact of Higher Tax Rates - 11-1-2010
  

• GDP Report Shows Slow Growth - 10-29-2010
  

• Big Tax Increase: Neg Q1 GDP? - 10-29-2010
  

• Good News Priced In, Cautious on Equities - 10-26-2010
  

• Get Ready for Tax Chaos - 10-14-2010
  

• Tepid Private Sector Job Gains; Local Governments Downsizing - 10-8-2010
  

• Giant Free Lunch Creating Stagflation - 10-5-2010
  

• Record Transfers Help Moderate Recovery in Income and Spending - 10-1-2010
  

• High Stakes in Extending Bush Tax Rates - 9-29-2010
  

• Bubble in Gold and Bonds - 9-29-2010
  

• Greenspan on Gold, Weak Business Investment - 9-15-2010
  

• Gold Hits New Record; Barbell Trade Still Draining Resources - 9-14-2010
  

• Jobs Report Mixed, Most Job Gains Part-Time - 9-3-2010
  

• U.S. Trade Deficit Continues Widening in June - 8-11-2010
  

• Jobs Report Weak, Unemployment Rate Flat at 9.5% - 8-6-2010
  

• Jobless Claims Higher, but Underlying Details Not So Bad - 8-5-2010
  

• Income Stagnation - 8-3-2010
  

• GDP Report Shows Lower Start for Second Half Growth - 8-2-2010
  

• Small Business Sentiment Worsened; No Regulatory Relief 7-13-2010
  

• Jobs Report Weak; Unemployment Rate Falls - 7-2-2010
  

• Spending Moderating Below Trend; Income Stabilizing - 6-28-2010
  

• China's Yuan to Strengthen - 6-20-2010 (Client)
  

• Small Business Credit Drain - 6-11-2010